Hand Quiz 1
Here’s a little quiz. I figure it might get some interesting discussion going. I realize we haven’t done any stud on cardsharp, but think of it as a chance to broaden your horizons.
The game is stud high. You are the bringin with [8h 8c] 2d. The 3s, Jh, Qh, 6d fold. The Kh completes. The As and Ac fold. You call. Two notes:
1) the structure is such that your 3rd street call is correct (ie. sufficiently large bringin & ante relative to the completed bet).
Assume a (rather unfortunate) 2 unit ante, 5 unit bringin, 10 unit small bet, 20 unit big bet structure if you need concrete numbers.
2) Villain is tight enough that his hand is either a pair of kings or the case aces.
On 4th, you catch 2c and villain catches 7d. You bet, he calls.
On 5th, you catch 9s and villain catches Jc. You bet, he calls.
On 6th, you catch 9d (for 3 pair) and villain catches Js. You’re first to act with two pair showing on board.
Now, you’re clearly behind but can also clearly represent a hand that beats villain (namely 2s full). The question is how you proceed on 6th and 7th.
Question 1) What is the game-theoretic optimal rate to (semi-)bluff 6th and/or 7th? And is the optimum strategy to bluff one or both? This article provides some background.
Question 2) If you wouldn’t adopt the strategy from 1), what strategy would you adopt and why?
Question 3) There’s a point in the process of solving question 1) where you have the option of adopting or eschewing a Bayesian view about something. What was it, which way did you choose to view the problem, and why?
Question 4) If your computation from question 1/2 was too complicated to do at the table, how would you have gotten an acceptable answer more quickly?
Even if stud isn’t your game, give this a shot. It’s a surprisingly deep problem that touches on a whole bunch of different areas of poker theory and practice. Post responses and questions and I’ll try to keep up with moderating the comments so we can have an effective discussion. I’ll post my answers and reasoning along with responses to reader comments next week.
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